8
Maravilla Du Metz
4yo Filly · 0-0
Toulouse · Prix Lurabo - Attele · 1m 6f 146y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength45%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Toulouse | 2 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Agen | 2 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-01-26 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Toulouse | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-18 | Agen | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 22/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 18/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 22/01/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 26/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |