7
Marmottan
4yo Gelding · 0-0
Toulouse · Prix Lurabo - Attele · 1m 6f 146y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Chatelaillon | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Agen | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Agen | 2 | +2 | ||
| 2026-01-22 | Toulouse | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 16/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 03/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 22/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 29/04/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 30/05/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 29/07/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |