10
Just Du Chatelet
7yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Cleomede - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | La Capelle | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Enghien | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Vincennes | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Vincennes | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Chartres | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Vincennes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.39 |
| 06/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 08/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 26/04/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 02/09/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |