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11

Marbella

4yo Filly · 0-0

Vincennes · Prix Eros - Attele · 1m 5f 92y

#14

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Vincennes 20/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m2f205y Std 020/09C?C0 @ Vincennes 18/10/2024 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f205y Std 018/10C?5 @ Saint Brieuc 30/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 1m4f176y Std 030/0455 @ Nantes 14/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m6f200y Std 014/055C0 @ Cholet 09/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 1m5f202y Std 09/06C?5 @ Enghien 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 1m6f64y Std 04/075C0 @ Angers 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 1m7f117y Std 09/09C?projClass-projected finish: 9th of 15
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Angers?3rd3rd0
2026-07-04Enghien57th8th−1
2026-06-09Cholet?2nd2nd0
2026-05-14Nantes56th7th−1
2026-04-30Saint Brieuc56th7th−1
2024-10-18Vincennes?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0914/059/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1738% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength76%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/20241st4/179%100%+0.21
18/10/20244th9/488%67%-0.21
30/04/20266th50/10%58%+0.58
14/05/20266th33/10%55%+0.55
09/06/20262nd4/179%92%+0.13
04/07/20267th5/174%54%-0.20
09/09/20263rd9/276%80%+0.04