8
Loyal Du Choquel
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Elisa - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Enghien | 2 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Enghien | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Enghien | 2 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Enghien | 3 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-24 | Vincennes | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 24/04/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 25/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 06/08/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 10% | -0.32 |