11
Lugano De Lou
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Elisa - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
81%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Vincennes | 3 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-09 | Caen | 3 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-20 | Vincennes | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Vincennes | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-07-23 | Enghien | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 92% | +0.27 |
| 21/02/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 45% | -0.31 |
| 12/04/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 20/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 03/06/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 20/06/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 46% | +0.30 |
| 07/02/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |