4
Lulu Des Carreaux
5yo Colt · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Elisa - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#8
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Argentan | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Cholet | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Enghien | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Caen | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-26 | Lisieux | 5 | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-03-04 | Amiens | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 93% | +0.28 |
| 07/11/2025 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 04/12/2025 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/03/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 26/03/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 59% | -0.15 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 69% | -0.23 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |