2
Merry Christmas
4yo Colt · 9-13
Vincennes · Prix Artemis - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#11
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 3
Class gap: +3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Cabourg | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Cabourg | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-04 | Vichy | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Vincennes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Agen | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength6%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 62% | +0.01 |
| 15/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 30/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 04/05/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 18% | -0.40 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |