11
April's Luck
2yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 54
Wolverhampton · Guardians Guild & BCMH Collaboration Nursery · 7f 36y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength78%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 9.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Beverley | 4 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-08-18 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-08-10 | Kempton | 4 | 12th | 10th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength62%
Delivery trend +8.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 200/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 29/08/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |