5
Better Nature
2yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 60
Wolverhampton · Guardians Guild & BCMH Collaboration Nursery · 7f 36y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength87%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Chepstow | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Leicester | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Brighton | 4 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Leicester | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 2 | 10th | 5th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength4%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |