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7

Jazzy Bay

2yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 58

Wolverhampton · Guardians Guild & BCMH Collaboration Nursery · 7f 36y

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

31%

Place Prob

36%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Found some progress making nursery debut when third at Chepstow in July. Hasn't quite kicked on since but shaped better than bare result there (7f, soft) 20 days ago, needing lesser test. The headgear is quickly discarded switched to the all-weather and no surprise if he makes presence felt.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength64%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chepstow 21/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 6f16y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS21/0545 @ Leicester 26/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS26/0554 @ Leicester 08/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS8/0646 @ Chepstow 08/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 64 · 6f16y GF 134 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 64 par8/076OR 646 @ Ffos Las 28/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 63 · 7f80y Goo 133 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 63 par28/076OR 635 @ Leicester 09/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 62 · 7f GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 62 par9/085OR 626 @ Chepstow 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 60 · 7f16y Goo 131 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 60 par29/086OR 60projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Chepstow66th6th0
2026-08-09Leicester54th3rd+1
2026-07-28Ffos Las64th4th0
2026-07-08Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-06-08Leicester43rd1st+2
2026-05-26Leicester53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/058/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength1%

Delivery trend -4.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20266th11/142%55%+0.12
26/05/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36
08/06/20263rd5/287%75%-0.12
08/07/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12
28/07/20264th9/276%67%-0.10
09/08/20264th8/158%40%-0.18
29/08/20266th7/282%38%-0.44