12
Lightenings Legacy
2yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 50
Wolverhampton · Guardians Guild & BCMH Collaboration Nursery · 7f 36y
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength77%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 3 | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-29 | Kempton | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
Delivery trend +8.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/08/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |