10

Waiting For Archie

2yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 55

Wolverhampton · Guardians Guild & BCMH Collaboration Nursery · 7f 36y

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Eighth of 11 on nursery debut (10/1) at Newcastle (6f) 16 days ago on the back of a breathing operation. Has been given some help by the handicapper.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move1
Strength62%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Thirsk 02/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 5f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS2/0554 @ Leicester 08/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS8/0644 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 5f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/0746 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 58 · 6f1y Std 133 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 58 par2/096OR 58projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Newcastle68th8th0
2026-07-04Beverley47th5th+2
2026-06-08Leicester47th5th+2
2026-05-02Thirsk55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/058/064/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength6%

Delivery trend -11.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20265th16/116%43%+0.27
08/06/20267th17/255%33%-0.22
04/07/20267th20/10%0%0.00
02/09/20268th10/147%30%-0.17