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11

Ashford Hill

5yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 46

Wolverhampton · JJX Logistics Going The Distance Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 36y

#7

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 7f Lingfield handicap in January. Back to form over that C&D in August. Ran poorly on rare turf start at Chepstow 18 days ago. May do better back on all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Bath 13/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m GS 127 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 45 par13/096OR 456 @ Lingfield 24/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 45 · 7f1y Std 126 · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Lingfield 10/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 49 · 7f1y Std 129 · beat its mark10/02/2026 · OR 49 par10/026OR 496 @ Kempton 04/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 49 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 48 · 7f36y Std 128 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 48 par21/046OR 486 @ Lingfield 01/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 47 · 6f1y Std 127 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 47 par5 @ Lingfield 04/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 46 · 7f1y Std 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 46 par4/085OR 466 @ Lingfield 11/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 46 · 7f1y Std 126 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 46 · 7f16y Goo 126 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 46 par31/086OR 46projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Chepstow67th7th0
2026-08-11Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-08-04Lingfield59th8th+1
2026-06-01Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-04-21Wolverhampton66th6th0
2026-03-04Kempton68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/094/034/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength29%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/20257th13/266%33%-0.32
24/01/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
10/02/20264th13/266%57%-0.09
04/03/20268th15/261%30%-0.31
21/04/20266th13/266%29%-0.37
01/06/20263rd10/147%67%+0.19
04/08/20269th66/10%20%+0.20
11/08/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
31/08/20267th15/261%40%-0.21