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Based

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 55

Wolverhampton · JJX Logistics Going The Distance Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 36y

#1

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

63%

Place Prob

49%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got off the mark over C&D back in June and made the frame twice the following month. Can have the run ignored when down the field at Southwell last time, meeting trouble and eased late on. First-time tongue strap goes on and can make presence felt.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 02/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m5y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS2/1054 @ Kempton 05/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 55 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 55 par27/046OR 556 @ Lingfield 19/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 55 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 53 · 7f36y Std 129 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 53 par2/066OR 536 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 59 · 7f14y Sta 129 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 58 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 58 par21/076OR 586 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f36y Std 131 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 56 · 6f16y Std 131 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 56 par31/086OR 56projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Southwell610th10th0
2026-07-30Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-07-21Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-06-25Newcastle67th7th0
2026-06-02Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-05-19Lingfield67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1019/0521/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 10-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20257th80/10%0%0.00
05/11/20258th200/10%13%+0.13
27/04/20262nd11/271%91%+0.20
19/05/20267th11/486%45%-0.40
02/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
25/06/20267th4/179%50%-0.29
21/07/20263rd6/594%75%-0.19
30/07/20264th7/163%73%+0.10
31/08/202610th3/184%18%-0.66