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Distillation

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 52

Wolverhampton · JJX Logistics Going The Distance Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 36y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner in July. 7/1, not ideally placed when sixth of 10 in handicap at Lingfield (7f, AW) last month. Each-way claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 24/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 6f110y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS24/1045 @ Wolverhampton 24/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 6f20y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 6f Sta 132 · HIGHER CLASS4/0546 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 52 · 7f36y Std 128 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Ffos Las 17/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 52 · 7f80y Sft 123 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 52 par17/066OR 526 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 50 · 7f36y Std 125 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 53 · 1m14y Std 133 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 53 par6/086OR 536 @ Lingfield 11/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 53 · 7f1y Std 127 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 53 par11/086OR 53projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-11Lingfield66th6th0
2026-08-06Southwell65th5th0
2026-07-21Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-06-17Ffos Las64th4th0
2026-06-02Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-05-04Kempton49th7th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/102/066/0811/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength40%

Delivery trend -5.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/20256th66/10%17%+0.17
24/11/202510th150/10%25%+0.25
04/05/20269th150/10%20%+0.20
02/06/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51
17/06/20264th18/15%50%+0.45
21/07/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
06/08/20265th11/486%56%-0.30
11/08/20266th7/163%44%-0.19