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7

Warrnambool

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 50

Wolverhampton · JJX Logistics Going The Distance Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 36y

#10

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden after 20 runs. Respectable sixth of 10 in handicap (18/1) at Lingfield (1¼m, AW) 17 days ago, slowly away. Back down markedly in trip. Others more persuasive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 20/09/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m1f Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 60 par20/094OR 606 @ Lingfield 27/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 59 · 1m1y Std 129 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 59 par6 @ Lingfield 02/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 57 · 1m1y Std 132 · beat its mark02/12/2025 · OR 57 par2/126OR 576 @ Lingfield 15/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 55 · 1m2f Std 133 · beat its mark15/12/2025 · OR 55 par6 @ Lingfield 17/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m1y Std 135 · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 55 par17/126OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 26/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m1f104y Std 133 · beat its mark26/12/2025 · OR 55 par6 @ Lingfield 11/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 54 · 1m2f Std 135 · below its mark11/08/2026 · OR 54 par11/086OR 546 @ Lingfield 20/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m1y Std 129 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Lingfield 01/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m2f Std 143 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 52 par1/096OR 52projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Lingfield66th6th0
2026-08-20Lingfield64th4th0
2026-08-11Lingfield611th11th0
2025-12-26Wolverhampton64th4th0
2025-12-17Lingfield65th5th0
2025-12-15Lingfield66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0915/1211/081/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength67%

Delivery trend +4.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/202513th66/10%8%+0.08
27/10/20253rd8/158%75%+0.17
02/12/20258th4/179%36%-0.43
15/12/20256th5/174%50%-0.24
17/12/20255th11/271%56%-0.15
26/12/20254th9/276%63%-0.14
11/08/202611th6/168%9%-0.59
20/08/20264th22/10%70%+0.70
01/09/20266th18/15%44%+0.39