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2

Elias Escape

3yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 55

Wolverhampton · JJX Logistics Going The Distance Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 36y

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thrice-raced maiden who's finished down the field on each of his 3 starts. Market best guide on handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 30/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 7f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS30/0454 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 6f2y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS16/0544 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f96y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS16/064projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-16Beverley48th6th+2
2026-05-16Doncaster48th6th+2
2026-04-30Redcar55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0416/0516/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%

Delivery trend +6.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/04/20265th33/10%0%0.00
16/05/20268th150/10%22%+0.22
16/06/20268th150/10%13%+0.13