9
Liberty Bird
4yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 49
Wolverhampton · JJX Logistics Going The Distance Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 36y
#12
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Windsor | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Chepstow | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 6 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-30 | Lingfield | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Southwell | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Lingfield | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength8%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 18/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 90% | +0.35 |
| 29/11/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 14% | -0.28 |
| 22/12/2025 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 11/02/2026 | 11th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 30/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 06/06/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 14% | +0.09 |
| 29/06/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |