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6

Mickey Mongoose

6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 50

Wolverhampton · JJX Logistics Going The Distance Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 36y

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Most recent 4 victories have all come at Southwell, the latest over 7f in May. Off 10 weeks, finished well held at Beverley (7.3f, good) in August. Can do better back on tapeta.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 17/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 44 · 1m13y Std 135 · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 44 par17/016OR 446 @ Southwell 24/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 44 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 44 par6 @ Southwell 11/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 51 · 7f14y Std 130 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 51 par11/036OR 516 @ Southwell 11/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 51 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Leicester 25/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 50 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 50 par25/046OR 506 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 49 · 7f14y Std 129 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 49 par5 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 52 · 7f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 52 par16/055OR 526 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 52 · 6f2y GF 128 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 51 · 7f75y Goo 132 · below its mark12/08/2026 · OR 51 par12/086OR 51projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Beverley613th13th0
2026-06-06Doncaster612th12th0
2026-05-16Newmarket54th3rd+1
2026-05-07Southwell61st1st0
2026-04-25Leicester68th8th0
2026-04-11Southwell65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0111/0416/0512/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength31%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/01/20265th11/142%50%+0.08
24/02/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
11/03/20265th17/255%50%-0.05
11/04/20265th11/142%60%+0.18
25/04/20268th22/10%22%+0.22
07/05/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
16/05/20264th17/255%50%-0.05
06/06/202612th22/10%27%+0.27
12/08/202613th33/10%0%0.00