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3

Nubough

10yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 52

Wolverhampton · JJX Logistics Going The Distance Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 36y

#4

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran who finished runner-up at Lingfield in January but hasn't repeated that form since, let down by racing freely last 3 starts.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chelmsford City 08/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 57 · 7f Std 133 · beat its mark08/05/2025 · OR 57 par8/056OR 575 @ Chelmsford City 12/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 59 · 7f Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2025 · OR 59 par5 @ Chelmsford City 02/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 59 · 7f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 59 par2/105OR 596 @ Chelmsford City 04/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f Std 134 · below its mark04/12/2025 · OR 58 par6 @ Lingfield 07/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 7f1y Std 133 · beat its mark07/01/2026 · OR 57 par7/016OR 576 @ Lingfield 10/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 57 · 6f1y Std 133 · beat its mark10/02/2026 · OR 57 par5 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 56 · 7f Sta 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 56 par8/045OR 566 @ Southwell 21/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 55 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Lingfield 20/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m1y Std 129 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 54 par20/086OR 54projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Lingfield67th7th0
2026-05-21Southwell65th5th0
2026-04-08Kempton511th10th+1
2026-02-10Lingfield66th6th0
2026-01-07Lingfield62nd2nd0
2025-12-04Chelmsford City612th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/054/128/0420/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength93%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/05/20251st22/10%100%+1.00
12/06/20257th14/126%0%-0.26
02/10/20255th40/10%56%+0.56
04/12/202512th40/10%0%0.00
07/01/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57
10/02/20266th18/15%55%+0.49
08/04/202611th66/10%9%+0.09
21/05/20265th16/116%50%+0.34
20/08/20267th66/10%40%+0.40