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8

Tortola

4yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 49

Wolverhampton · JJX Logistics Going The Distance Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 36y

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Best effort this season when second at Bellewstown on first start for Eoin Griffin in July. Below form next 2 starts and has since switched yards again. Market best guide.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C6.1
Today: 6
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA65 @ Cork 06/05/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 65 · 1m Goo 119 · below its mark06/05/2025 · OR 65 par6/0565OR 65BHA60 @ Clonmel 11/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 60 · 1m1f130y Sft 119 · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 60 parC8 @ Dundalk 03/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 59 · 7f Std 131 · beat its mark03/12/2025 · OR 59 par3/12C8OR 59BHA59 @ Dundalk 16/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 59 · 7f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 59 parC8 @ Dundalk 30/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f Std 133 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 58 par30/01C8OR 58C8 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m Std 122 · below its mark13/02/2026 · OR 56 parBHA52 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 52 · 7f211y Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 52 par2/0752OR 52BHA53 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 53 · 1m40y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 53 parBHA53 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 53 · 1m2f150y Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 53 par15/0853OR 53projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15DundalkBHA537th6th+1
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA5313th12th+1
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA522nd1st+1
2026-02-13Dundalk?12th14th−2
2026-01-30Dundalk?7th9th−2
2026-01-16DundalkBHA595th5th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0516/012/0715/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength16%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/05/202514th40/10%0%0.00
11/09/20258th50/10%22%+0.22
03/12/20253rd50/10%78%+0.78
16/01/20265th12/137%69%+0.32
30/01/20267th11/142%45%+0.03
13/02/202612th20/10%0%0.00
02/07/20262nd28/10%93%+0.93
15/07/202613th9/276%0%-0.76
15/08/20267th22/10%54%+0.54