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9yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 47
Wolverhampton · JJX Logistics Going The Distance Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 36y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +11.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |
| 16/10/2025 | 12th | 9/2 | 76% | 8% | -0.68 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 25/03/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 19/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |