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7

Vitalline

8yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 50

Wolverhampton · JJX Logistics Going The Distance Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 36y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a second win of the campaign in 6f handicap at Newcastle in June. Runner-up at Lingfield last month and probably still in form there last time, not ideally placed. Can make presence felt.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Kempton 25/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 52 · 6f Sta 127 · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 52 par25/036OR 526 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 51 · 6f Sta 122 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Lingfield 27/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 50 · 7f1y Std 120 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 50 par27/046OR 506 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 49 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 47 · 6f Sta 127 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 47 par26/066OR 475 @ Southwell 05/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 52 · 7f14y Std 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Lingfield 04/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 52 · 6f1y Std 122 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 52 par4/086OR 526 @ Lingfield 18/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 50 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Lingfield 10/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 50 · 7f1y Std 126 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 50 par10/096OR 50projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Lingfield66th6th0
2026-08-18Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-08-04Lingfield69th9th0
2026-07-05Southwell59th8th+1
2026-06-26Newcastle61st1st0
2026-06-02Wolverhampton65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/032/064/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/03/202610th13/266%10%-0.56
08/04/20266th40/10%50%+0.50
27/04/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
02/06/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
26/06/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
05/07/20269th20/10%11%+0.11
04/08/20269th20/10%11%+0.11
18/08/20262nd11/142%89%+0.47
10/09/20266th10/147%44%-0.03