7
Ash Wednesday
5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 71
Wolverhampton · Pertemps Network Handicap · 7f 36y
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Kempton | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-19 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2025 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 08/06/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.57 |
| 25/07/2025 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 19/01/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 13% | -0.69 |
| 11/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |
| 30/04/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 27/07/2026 | 12th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |