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11

Kit Gabriel

7yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 67

Wolverhampton · Pertemps Network Handicap · 7f 36y

#7

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner who hasn't won in eleven outings since 2025. Can have his latest run overlooked when last of 10 over this C&D in July. Market best guide.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chelmsford City 11/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 73 · 7f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/01/2026 · OR 73 par11/014OR 735 @ Lingfield 31/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 72 · 7f1y Std 132 · beat its mark31/01/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Chelmsford City 26/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 71 · 7f Std 131 · below its mark26/02/2026 · OR 71 par26/025OR 714 @ Wolverhampton 09/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 69 · 7f36y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/03/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Lingfield 30/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 68 · 7f1y Std 133 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 68 par30/045OR 684 @ Kempton 06/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 68 · 7f Sta 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Kempton 27/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 70 · 1m Sta 139 · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 70 par27/055OR 705 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 69 · 1m142y Std 134 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 68 · 7f36y Std 140 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 68 par31/075OR 68projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Wolverhampton510th10th0
2026-07-07Wolverhampton56th6th0
2026-05-27Kempton511th11th0
2026-05-06Kempton42nd1st+1
2026-04-30Lingfield53rd3rd0
2026-03-09Wolverhampton43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/019/0327/0531/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 10-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/01/202611th33/10%0%0.00
31/01/20264th8/158%57%-0.01
26/02/20268th28/10%0%0.00
09/03/20263rd33/10%71%+0.71
30/04/20263rd5/174%75%+0.01
06/05/20262nd11/142%92%+0.50
27/05/202611th10/382%23%-0.59
07/07/20266th15/261%55%-0.06
31/07/202610th8/158%0%-0.58