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9

Powder Monkey

3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 74

Wolverhampton · Pertemps Network Handicap · 7f 36y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

91%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed improved form to get off the mark in 11-runner handicap at Lingfield (7f, AW) 29 days ago. Up 5 lb but has few miles on the clock and has to be taken seriously with Loughnane back in the saddle.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 09/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 7f36y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS9/0344 @ Southwell 26/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 1m13y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS26/0344 @ Newmarket 14/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 7f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS14/0444 @ Windsor 23/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 70 · 6f12y GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 70 par23/054OR 705 @ Lingfield 20/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 69 · 7f1y Std 131 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 69 par20/085OR 69projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Lingfield51st1st0
2026-05-23Windsor46th5th+1
2026-04-14Newmarket45th4th+1
2026-03-26Southwell43rd2nd+1
2026-03-09Wolverhampton42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0326/0314/0423/0520/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/03/20262nd16/583%75%-0.08
26/03/20263rd10/382%80%-0.02
14/04/20265th25/10%43%+0.43
23/05/20266th15/261%62%+0.01
20/08/20261st15/261%100%+0.39