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4

Velvet Rhythm

3yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 75

Wolverhampton · Pertemps Network Handicap · 7f 36y

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back on the up to land a fourth win of the season at Catterick in July. Has been placed twice from last 4 starts since and can bounce back from a lesser effort on first all-weather start this season.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 65 · 7f6y Goo 126 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 65 par21/055OR 655 @ Lingfield 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 68 · 7f135y Goo 128 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 68 · 6f195y Goo 132 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 68 par15/065OR 685 @ Catterick 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 68 · 7f6y GF 127 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Catterick 08/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 72 · 7f6y GF 133 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 72 par8/075OR 723 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 77 · 7f GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 24th of 26 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 77 par29/074OR 774 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 77 · 7f15y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 77 par3 @ Epsom Downs 31/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 77 · 7f3y GS 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 77 par31/083OR 77projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Epsom Downs37th5th+2
2026-08-24Musselburgh43rd2nd+1
2026-07-29Goodwood424th23th+1
2026-07-18Newbury33rd1st+2
2026-07-08Catterick51st1st0
2026-06-22Catterick51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0522/0629/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength30%

Delivery trend +0.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
30/05/20264th7/282%40%-0.42
15/06/20268th7/282%22%-0.59
22/06/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
08/07/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
18/07/20263rd6/168%60%-0.08
29/07/202624th25/10%8%+0.08
24/08/20263rd13/266%78%+0.12
31/08/20267th7/163%14%-0.49