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Belle Amie

4yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 60

Wolverhampton · Dave Hill, Mental Health Ambassador Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/10

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

83%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has taken her form up a notch for current yard this year, making a successful stable debut in minor event over this C&D in February. Has won a pair of handicaps at Bath since, the latest in decisive fashion 16 days ago. Strong contender.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 23/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 47 · 1m4f14y Std 127 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 47 par23/096OR 476 @ Southwell 24/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 47 · 1m4f14y Std 122 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 47 par6 @ Chelmsford City 26/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 50 · 1m5f66y Std 126 · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 50 par26/116OR 506 @ Wolverhampton 09/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 50 · 1m4f51y Std 133 · beat its mark09/02/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Windsor 07/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 51 · 1m3f99y Goo 131 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 51 par7/056OR 516 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 50 · 1m3f137y Gd 131 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 50 par5 @ Newmarket 26/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 56 · 1m4f GF 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 56 par26/065OR 566 @ Lingfield 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 56 · 1m5f Std 131 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 55 · 1m3f137y Gd 130 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 55 par2/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Bath61st1st0
2026-08-15Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-06-26Newmarket54th3rd+1
2026-06-13Bath61st1st0
2026-05-07Windsor64th4th0
2026-02-09Wolverhampton61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/099/0226/062/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%

Delivery trend -9.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/09/20252nd28/10%88%+0.88
24/10/20252nd9/276%92%+0.16
26/11/20253rd3/184%83%-0.01
09/02/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
07/05/20264th11/271%70%-0.01
13/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
26/06/20264th7/491%0%-0.91
15/08/20263rd4/179%75%-0.04
02/09/20261st7/491%100%+0.09