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Luan

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 60

Wolverhampton · Dave Hill, Mental Health Ambassador Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved when winning back-to-back handicaps at Newcastle and this C&D during the summer for James Ferguson. Stepped forward from his stable debut effort when runner-up here 17 days ago, albeit helped by being well positioned.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 17/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 1m13y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS17/0855 @ Chelmsford City 28/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Lingfield 23/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m1y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS23/0956 @ Leicester 14/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 56 · 1m2f Goo 127 · below its mark14/10/2025 · OR 56 par6 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 53 · 1m1f104y Std 128 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 53 par2/066OR 536 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 51 · 1m2f42y Sta 147 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 55 · 1m4f51y Std 140 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 55 par14/076OR 556 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 61 · 1m3f24y Std 131 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Wolverhampton 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 60 · 1m4f51y Std 132 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 60 par1/096OR 60projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-08-06Southwell69th9th0
2026-07-14Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-06-26Newcastle61st1st0
2026-06-02Wolverhampton69th9th0
2025-10-14Leicester613th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0814/1014/071/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength63%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/08/20259th14/126%33%+0.07
28/08/20255th150/10%64%+0.64
23/09/20256th22/10%44%+0.44
14/10/202513th6/168%14%-0.54
02/06/20269th7/163%20%-0.43
26/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
14/07/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
06/08/20269th9/153%20%-0.33
01/09/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01