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7

Nora Barnacle

4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 45

Wolverhampton · Dave Hill, Mental Health Ambassador Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has yet to finish better than mid-divison, returning from a further 12 weeks off when seventh of 10 in handicap at Bath (1¾m) 16 days ago. Races from 1 lb out of the weights here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 06/08/2024 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 7f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS6/0855 @ Lingfield 11/09/2024 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f1y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Southwell 24/10/2024 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 46 · 7f14y Std 127 · beat its mark24/10/2024 · OR 46 par24/106OR 466 @ Windsor 04/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 45 · 1m31y Goo 123 · beat its mark04/08/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Wolverhampton 01/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 45 · 1m1f104y Std 121 · beat its mark01/12/2025 · OR 45 par1/126OR 456 @ Chelmsford City 08/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m5f66y Std 123 · beat its mark08/01/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Lingfield 07/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 45 · 1m2f Std 126 · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 45 par7/026OR 456 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 45 · 2m1f24y Goo 128 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m6f Goo 126 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 45 par2/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Bath67th7th0
2026-06-13Bath66th6th0
2026-02-07Lingfield66th6th0
2026-01-08Chelmsford City67th7th0
2025-12-01Wolverhampton66th6th0
2025-08-04Windsor612th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/084/087/022/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength22%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/08/20246th125/10%55%+0.55
11/09/20248th250/10%22%+0.22
24/10/202411th66/10%9%+0.09
04/08/202512th50/10%8%+0.08
01/12/20256th80/10%55%+0.55
08/01/20267th40/10%33%+0.33
07/02/20266th40/10%0%0.00
13/06/20266th50/10%29%+0.29
02/09/20267th33/10%33%+0.33