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3

Tenadaay

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 59

Wolverhampton · Dave Hill, Mental Health Ambassador Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

First Flat start for present stable when scoring in good style over this C&D in January. Backed that up with a good second at Southwell in March before shaping as if needing the run when down the field at Lingfield last month. Merits consideration.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength80%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 16/11/2024 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 1m142y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS16/1145 @ Beverley 24/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f207y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Kempton 27/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 60 · 1m3f219y Sta 131 · beat its mark27/08/2025 · OR 60 par27/086OR 606 @ Epsom Downs 11/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m4f6y Sft 128 · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 57 par4 @ Fontwell 08/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 2m1f162y Hvy 154 · HIGHER CLASS8/1242 @ Kempton 27/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 2m Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Wolverhampton 19/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 55 · 1m4f51y Std 133 · beat its mark19/01/2026 · OR 55 par19/016OR 556 @ Southwell 11/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 1m4f14y Std 130 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Lingfield 15/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m5f Std 135 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 60 par15/086OR 60projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Lingfield67th7th0
2026-03-11Southwell62nd2nd0
2026-01-19Wolverhampton61st1st0
2025-12-27Kempton27th2nd+4
2025-12-08Fontwell43rd1st+2
2025-09-11Epsom Downs610th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1111/0919/0115/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength87%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/11/20245th25/10%50%+0.50
24/04/20256th10/147%44%-0.03
27/08/20258th28/10%30%+0.30
11/09/202510th33/10%0%0.00
08/12/20253rd33/10%67%+0.67
27/12/20257th28/10%25%+0.25
19/01/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
11/03/20262nd3/184%86%+0.02
15/08/20267th28/10%25%+0.25