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5

Trojan Truth

7yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 57

Wolverhampton · Dave Hill, Mental Health Ambassador Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Typically slowly away but recorded a hat-trick last summer. Beaten just a short head at Ffos Las in July though has lost even more ground at the start in 2 subsequent outings, 4 lengths third of 6 to Belle Amie at Bath 16 days ago. Capable of getting involved if things drop right.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 22/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 64 · 1m4f51y Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 64 par22/095OR 646 @ Wolverhampton 20/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 64 · 1m5f219y Std 134 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 64 par5 @ Leicester 09/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 63 · 1m3f179y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 63 par9/055OR 636 @ Chepstow 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 61 · 1m4f Goo 136 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 62 · 1m3f197y GF 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 62 par20/065OR 626 @ Leicester 14/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 61 · 1m3f179y GF 131 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Ffos Las 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 60 · 1m3f209y Goo 135 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 60 par28/076OR 606 @ Windsor 17/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m3f99y GF 138 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 59 · 1m3f137y Gd 134 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 59 par2/096OR 59projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Bath63rd3rd0
2026-08-17Windsor65th5th0
2026-07-28Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-07-14Leicester63rd3rd0
2026-06-20Doncaster56th5th+1
2026-05-29Chepstow62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0929/0528/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/20252nd10/147%86%+0.38
20/10/20253rd6/492%50%-0.42
09/05/20266th25/10%0%0.00
29/05/20262nd6/168%86%+0.17
20/06/20266th10/147%0%-0.47
14/07/20263rd17/255%60%+0.05
28/07/20262nd33/10%88%+0.88
17/08/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
02/09/20263rd18/15%60%+0.55