6

Wonderful Wendy

4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 50

Wolverhampton · Dave Hill, Mental Health Ambassador Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Justified support when making a successful handicap debut at Chepstow in June. Possibly needed the outing after 12 weeks off when fifth of 8 at the same course 20 days ago, so she could yet do better after only the 5 career starts.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength75%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 01/08/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 1m3f23y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS1/0854 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m2f37y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS5/0443 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m4f51y Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS27/0436 @ Chepstow 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 49 · 1m4f Sft 124 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 49 par6/066OR 496 @ Chepstow 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 51 · 1m4f Goo 134 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 51 par29/086OR 51projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Chepstow65th5th0
2026-06-06Chepstow62nd2nd0
2026-04-27Wolverhampton36th2nd+3
2026-04-05Bath45th3rd+2
2025-08-01Southwell511th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/085/0427/046/0629/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength38%

Delivery trend -13.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/202511th125/10%17%+0.17
05/04/20265th80/10%43%+0.43
27/04/20266th200/10%29%+0.29
06/06/20262nd13/266%88%+0.22
29/08/20265th7/282%43%-0.39