Evening Fades
3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 60
Wolverhampton · Cardway Cartons Box Designer Fillies' Handicap · 1m 1f 104y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Salisbury | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ffos Las | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Goodwood | 2 | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-12-03 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +11.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 91% | +0.86 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |