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Lilly Lux

5yo Mare · 10-0 · OR 70

Wolverhampton · Cardway Cartons Box Designer Fillies' Handicap · 1m 1f 104y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual all-weather winner in France who produced her best effort for current yard when runner-up at Southwell in March. Backed that up when third of 10 at Windsor 8 weeks later, so task is now to pick up where she left off after 4-month absence.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Pornichet 28/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m3f204y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS28/01C54 @ Kempton 05/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 77 · 1m3f219y Sta 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/05/2025 · OR 77 par4 @ Kempton 25/06/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 75 · 1m2f219y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/06/2025 · OR 75 par25/064OR 755 @ Lingfield 25/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 72 · 1m2f Std 135 · beat its mark25/11/2025 · OR 72 par5 @ Southwell 06/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 70 · 1m3f23y Std 135 · beat its mark06/01/2026 · OR 70 par6/015OR 705 @ Kempton 11/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 71 · 1m2f219y Sta 135 · beat its mark11/02/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Kempton 04/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 70 · 1m2f219y Sta 135 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 70 par4/035OR 705 @ Southwell 21/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 69 · 1m4f14y Std 137 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 70 · 1m3f99y Goo 142 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 70 par11/055OR 70projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-11Windsor53rd3rd0
2026-03-21Southwell52nd2nd0
2026-03-04Kempton54th4th0
2026-02-11Kempton56th6th0
2026-01-06Southwell52nd2nd0
2025-11-25Lingfield53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0125/114/0311/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength99%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/01/20251st4/596%100%+0.04
05/05/20258th22/10%0%0.00
25/06/202513th80/10%8%+0.08
25/11/20253rd100/10%71%+0.71
06/01/20262nd22/10%83%+0.83
11/02/20266th9/153%44%-0.08
04/03/20264th11/142%73%+0.31
21/03/20262nd4/179%83%+0.04
11/05/20263rd4/179%78%-0.01