Melting Snow
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 64
Wolverhampton · Cardway Cartons Box Designer Fillies' Handicap · 1m 1f 104y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
95%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Yarmouth | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Beverley | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Beverley | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Lingfield | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Doncaster | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 12/05/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |