3
Renesmee
6yo Mare · 9-12 · OR 68
Wolverhampton · Cardway Cartons Box Designer Fillies' Handicap · 1m 1f 104y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength59%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Lingfield | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Newmarket | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newmarket | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 24th | 20th | +3 |
| 2026-06-05 | Goodwood | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength24%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 17/06/2026 | 24th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |