Al's River
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 59
Wolverhampton · Black Country Mental Health 50th Anniversary Handicap · 2m 120y
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Leicester | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Nottingham | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-06 | Chelmsford City | 2 | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Nottingham | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 23/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |
| 06/11/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |