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Billy Bathgate

10yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 56

Wolverhampton · Black Country Mental Health 50th Anniversary Handicap · 2m 120y

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

20%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner who gained a deserved first win of 2026 in 4-runner Redcar handicap (2m) in July. Got going too late when distant third behind Niffler over an inadequate test at Newcastle (12.5f) latest. Entitled to at least close that gap over a more suitable trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 11/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 57 · 1m6f21y Std 133 · beat its mark11/02/2026 · OR 57 par11/026OR 575 @ Newcastle 15/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 56 · 2m56y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Wolverhampton 02/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 55 · 2m120y Std 133 · beat its mark02/03/2026 · OR 55 par2/036OR 556 @ Newcastle 11/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 55 · 2m56y Std 135 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Wolverhampton 31/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m5f219y Std 130 · beat its mark31/03/2026 · OR 55 par31/036OR 555 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 54 · 1m4f98y Sta 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 53 · 1m7f217y Goo 132 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 53 par19/076OR 536 @ Redcar 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 57 · 1m5f218y Goo 134 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Newcastle 20/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 56 · 1m4f98y Std 140 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 56 par20/086OR 56projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-08-08Redcar65th5th0
2026-07-19Redcar61st1st0
2026-06-27Newcastle56th5th+1
2026-03-31Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-03-11Newcastle63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0211/0319/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength85%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/02/20264th9/153%25%-0.28
15/02/20263rd9/276%50%-0.26
02/03/20264th7/491%50%-0.41
11/03/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04
31/03/20264th11/142%67%+0.25
27/06/20266th28/10%55%+0.55
19/07/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
08/08/20265th5/174%50%-0.24
20/08/20263rd7/163%82%+0.19