1
Hellion
4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 65
Wolverhampton · Black Country Mental Health 50th Anniversary Handicap · 2m 120y
#5
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength83%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 3 | 10th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-06-16 | Stratford | 5 | +1 | ||
| 2026-04-16 | Hereford | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-03-27 | Wetherby | 4 | +2 | ||
| 2026-01-30 | Catterick | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-09-13 | Bath | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength7%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 30/01/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 16/04/2026 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 07/07/2026 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |