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5

Niffler

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 61

Wolverhampton · Black Country Mental Health 50th Anniversary Handicap · 2m 120y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/13

Win Prob

80%

Place Prob

66%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Typical Sir Mark Prescott improver. Made really hard work of landing the hat-trick at short odds in a 4-runner race at Newcastle (2m) last time. Likely remains capable of better given yard's record with this type and may well maintain his unbeaten handicap record in another small-field event.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f14y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS5/0454 @ Southwell 15/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m13y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS15/0445 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 7f36y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS27/0456 @ Newcastle 20/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 47 · 1m4f98y Std 122 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 47 par20/086OR 476 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 47 · 1m5f192y Goo 127 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 47 par26/086OR 476 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 58 · 2m56y Std 135 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 58 par5/096OR 58projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle61st1st0
2026-08-26Catterick61st1st0
2026-08-20Newcastle61st1st0
2026-04-27Wolverhampton510th9th+1
2026-04-15Southwell49th7th+2
2026-04-05Southwell58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0415/0427/0420/0826/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength90%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20268th25/10%22%+0.22
15/04/20269th300/10%27%+0.27
27/04/202610th125/10%10%+0.10
20/08/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
26/08/20261st4/1198%100%+0.02
05/09/20261st1/499%100%+0.01