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4yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 61

Wolverhampton · Black Country Mental Health 50th Anniversary Handicap · 2m 120y

#3

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly raced for her age. Placed on both all-weather handicap starts (including here). Presumably failed to handle the heavy going when well-beaten favourite on first try over this trip at Beverley subsequently. Should be competitive back on this surface with Billy Loughnane taking over.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Lingfield 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m2f Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS28/0433 @ Nottingham 19/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f50y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS19/0533 @ Lingfield 04/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 1m2f Std 141 · HIGHER CLASS4/0636 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 60 · 1m5f219y Std 156 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 60 par21/076OR 606 @ Lingfield 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 63 · 1m5f Std 142 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 63 par8/086OR 635 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 62 · 2m32y Hvy 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 62 par30/085OR 62projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Beverley56th5th+1
2026-08-08Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-07-21Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-06-04Lingfield39th5th+3
2026-05-19Nottingham37th3rd+3
2026-04-28Lingfield35th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0419/054/0621/078/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -18.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/04/20265th40/10%43%+0.43
19/05/20267th125/10%33%+0.33
04/06/20269th200/10%33%+0.33
21/07/20262nd9/153%90%+0.37
08/08/20263rd15/261%67%+0.06
30/08/20266th9/488%17%-0.71