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4

Wedonttellthetruth

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 65

Wolverhampton · Black Country Mental Health 50th Anniversary Handicap · 2m 120y

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made a winning handicap debut here (1½m) in March. Travelled smoothly when 1½-length second in a solid 3-y-o handicap at Nottingham (1¾m, soft) on final start for Mark Loughnane in early-June. Unexposed tackling his elders/2m for the first time on stable debut. Likely the main threat to Niffler.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength65%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 06/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f104y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS6/1254 @ Wolverhampton 27/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m142y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS27/1243 @ Wolverhampton 06/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m142y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS6/0136 @ Wolverhampton 09/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 58 · 1m4f51y Std 133 · beat its mark09/03/2026 · OR 58 par9/036OR 586 @ Kempton 30/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 63 · 1m3f219y Sta 133 · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 63 par30/036OR 636 @ Kempton 30/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m3f219y Sta 135 · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 63 par30/046OR 636 @ Nottingham 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 62 · 1m6f Sft 134 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 62 par11/066OR 62projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-11Nottingham62nd2nd0
2026-04-30Kempton69th9th0
2026-03-30Kempton66th6th0
2026-03-09Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-01-06Wolverhampton35th1st+3
2025-12-27Wolverhampton46th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/129/0311/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/12/20256th33/10%17%+0.17
27/12/20256th150/10%55%+0.55
06/01/20265th40/10%33%+0.33
09/03/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
30/03/20266th9/153%50%-0.03
30/04/20269th12/137%0%-0.37
11/06/20262nd33/10%86%+0.86