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Come On Over

3yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 75

Wolverhampton · GE Starr Engineering...The Brightest Spark Handicap · 6f 20y

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

14%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Big career best when doubling tally at Redcar in August and has backed that up with a pair of excellent runner-up efforts, finding only a progressive one too good at Redcar on Monday. Claims are fairly obvious turned out quickly back on all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 68 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 68 par28/055OR 686 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 65 · 6f2y Goo 135 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Doncaster 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 65 · 6f2y GF 135 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 65 par26/066OR 656 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 64 · 6f2y GF 135 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Nottingham 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 68 · 5f8y Goo 130 · below its mark21/07/2026 · OR 68 par21/075OR 685 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 68 · 6f2y GF 131 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 67 · 5f217y Goo 129 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 67 par22/085OR 675 @ Lingfield 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 6f1y Std 134 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Redcar 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 75 · 5f217y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 75 par15/094OR 75projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Redcar42nd1st+1
2026-09-03Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-08-22Redcar51st1st0
2026-08-01Doncaster54th4th0
2026-07-21Nottingham54th4th0
2026-07-03Doncaster61st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/053/0722/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/05/20268th16/116%30%+0.14
14/06/20264th18/15%77%+0.72
26/06/20262nd5/174%88%+0.14
03/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
21/07/20264th5/287%0%-0.87
01/08/20264th16/116%57%+0.41
22/08/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
03/09/20262nd15/261%83%+0.23
15/09/20262nd11/271%92%+0.21