Horace Wallace
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 69
Wolverhampton · GE Starr Engineering...The Brightest Spark Handicap · 6f 20y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
83%
Place Prob
58%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Lingfield | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Haydock | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Lingfield | 2 | 8th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 08/12/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 02/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 27/02/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.11 |
| 13/03/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 17/05/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |