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5

Korbut

3yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 73

Wolverhampton · GE Starr Engineering...The Brightest Spark Handicap · 6f 20y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up for fourth consecutive start on handicap debut at Southwell in July and a late jink (hung badly right) wasn't enough to stop her from going one better in 3-runner Ffos Las maiden subsequently. Another sound effort when second 2 weeks ago and she can be a factor again returned to 6f.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength72%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 5 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 23/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m142y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS23/0344 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 7f14y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Wolverhampton 17/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f36y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS17/0444 @ Catterick 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 74 · 5f212y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Kempton 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 7f Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 72 par2/074OR 724 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 7f36y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 7f14y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 72 par27/074OR 724 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 73 · 7f80y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 73 · 7f15y Std 133 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 73 par3/095OR 73projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Southwell52nd2nd0
2026-08-21Ffos Las41st0th+1
2026-07-27Southwell42nd1st+1
2026-07-17Wolverhampton42nd1st+1
2026-07-02Kempton42nd1st+1
2026-06-11Catterick42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0311/0627/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/03/202610th8/158%0%-0.58
07/04/20262nd33/10%86%+0.86
17/04/20265th28/10%50%+0.50
11/06/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
02/07/20262nd17/255%88%+0.32
17/07/20262nd10/382%88%+0.05
27/07/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
21/08/20261st8/1397%100%+0.03
03/09/20262nd7/491%88%-0.03