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10

Obsidian Verse

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 66

Wolverhampton · GE Starr Engineering...The Brightest Spark Handicap · 6f 20y

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got off the mark in 6f handicap at Southwell in April. Hasn't kicked on from that as hoped but way he shaped over 7f at Kempton a month ago suggests return to 6f is a good move.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 29/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS29/0844 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f3y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Goodwood 12/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 6f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS12/1045 @ Lingfield 27/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 67 · 7f1y Std 133 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 67 par6 @ Southwell 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 65 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 65 par30/046OR 655 @ Leicester 13/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 69 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 68 · 6f20y Std 128 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 68 par17/075OR 685 @ Kempton 19/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 67 · 7f Sta 132 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 67 par19/085OR 67projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Kempton58th8th0
2026-07-17Wolverhampton56th6th0
2026-06-13Leicester55th5th0
2026-04-30Southwell61st2nd−1
2026-03-27Lingfield58th8th0
2025-10-12Goodwood45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0827/0317/0719/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/08/20258th14/126%22%-0.04
16/09/20254th125/10%57%+0.57
12/10/20255th7/163%33%-0.30
27/03/20268th7/282%22%-0.59
30/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
13/06/20265th6/168%50%-0.18
17/07/20266th4/179%55%-0.24
19/08/20268th4/179%22%-0.57