3
Gizmo's B F F
8yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 75
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 11/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 27/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |