6
Gretna Green
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 71
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength39%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 12/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 23/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |